The author of the Chinese nation has made important contributions to humanity of
: Sun Jinwei Editor: Foresight and knowledge banks and David give some comments I
today for the Chinese nation in the past few years, made for all mankind important contributions, these contributions have become facts of history.
one, in the natural environment protection and natural disaster prediction analysis area.
1. the world's only close to the correct prediction of natural disasters, global development control powers to remind the countries of the world Government and the elite must quickly change the global mainstream of economic development around the world.
author in September 6, 2005 in the planning and foresight reputation source blog published [global environmental disaster prediction]. reads as follows: Article Address:
According to the last four or five years of global natural disasters and man-made disasters of history, such as typhoons, floods, earthquakes, desertification, epidemics, sudden illness, exploitation, and so infinite variety of disasters, bombings and the outbreak of increasing frequency, the outbreak of severity is also rising.
Therefore, we predict the next ten to twenty years the number of global environmental disasters, the outbreak of the frequency and severity of three to five times the speed will increase and improve the extent of three to five times.
If the next five to ten years human beings are not the world to fundamentally change the economic development model, do not stop the destruction of the Earth's environment, then the global environmental disaster two years later the rate will be increased several times and several times was improved.
then the human survival and development will be a severe blow and setback.
can not do anything, other countries face the face of this disaster, how to do? If we look back at the past decade around the world frequent natural disasters and man-made disasters, whether human awake the world: the destruction of our Earth's environment has reached the point where the earth can not stand. Every year a rapid increase and enhance the disaster has taught us: the human destruction of natural disasters is a revenge, for he has completely broken the balance of the Earth's natural environmental cycle.
Although several decades There are countless intellectuals have called on the government and businesses continued to protect the earth's natural environment, but also a small number of governments and enterprises to take a number of effective policies and measures to improve the natural environment protection. But to the immediate economic use for their own economic interests and enterprises in most countries, or taken at the expense of damage to the environment and the way in exchange for immediate economic growth. unlimited exploitation and mining, unrestricted emissions, national comparisons competitive weapon test explosions, the extreme consumption binge pursuit of growing space launch and unlimited expansion of animal slaughter, etc., are all in the day to accelerate the destruction of the Earth's environment. If such a side edge of the development of damage is not completely change the economic model, the pursuit of extreme changes in consumption patterns is not complete, the human the destruction of the Earth's environment can not be reduced, the natural environment and man-made disasters, environmental disasters will drastically increase the severity of disasters are bound to deepen.
as a Chinese citizen on November 10 last year, the major site at the initiative of the Forum protect the natural environment, reduce environmental pollution, against the excessive consumption government leaders and business tycoons were able to deeply understand the seriousness of the problem and take positive action to change this situation. because only the economic and social development of States powers to master class to take the lead from start to change their consumption and economic development. humans can fundamentally change the destruction of the Earth's environment, natural disasters and man-made disasters have the potential to reduce. human beings to protect the earth, to protect themselves.
2005 �� 9 �� 6 days 2. published first in the world [reduce environmental pollution, against over-consumption balance and increasing environmental damage, one of the major causes.
author on 10 November 2004 in central China, brainstorming, creating market blog sites and published [Proposal]. reads as follows:
article addresses the recent development of circular economy in China Forum held in Shanghai, it was proposed to The signal of scientific development.
China's economic development today, less population and resource conflicts, the expansion of production and waste of resources and environmental pollution have become increasingly prominent. With the continuous economic development and growing population, water, energy and mineral such as an increasingly serious problem of inadequate resources, ecological destruction and protecting the environment more and more intense conflicts. In the face of China's economic and social future, China's supply of natural resources to maintain long? dependent people to live more eco-environment can be maintained for a long time?
to China's economic development as soon as possible to a reduce environmental pollution, against excessive consumption. , cups, paper towels, bags and other consumer.
(2) reduction and refused to luxury restaurants and entertainment consumption.
(3) to reduce and refused to luxury consumer packaged goods.
(4) water conservation, electricity and oil.
(5) against the extravagant lifestyle.
(6) Public environment and ecological environment protection.
We sincerely welcome all individuals and organizations act together, from me starting from the start bit by bit, to conserve natural resources and reduce environmental pollution, against over-consumption.
Thank you for support.
brainstorming China Center
2004 �� 11 �� 10 Tue, in the world Analysis of the field of economic forecasting
1. the only correct prediction of the global economic crisis of 2008 scholars. and is the world's first and only revealed a right U.S. national leaders, including the hottest global economy BRIC 2008 or 2009 outbreak of a global financial crisis.] reads as follows:
article addresses:
have occurred since the Southeast Asian financial crisis gripping our memory, because that crisis to Asian countries has brought great economic and social losses and blow. then the future will be similar whether the financial crisis? Can we avoid the crisis?
course, we hope that a similar financial crisis in Southeast Asia do not come again, and we look forward to in a timely manner anticipate crises and the outbreak of the factors and causes, and hope to fix and overcome these factors, so to avoid the last Asian financial crisis similar to or even greater financial crisis.
the surface, the last two years the global economy volume growth is very gratifying, such as China, India, Brazil and Russia, the total economy at an alarming rate every year, the rapid development; global trade volume is also high growth; the rapid growth in the total cross-border investment; around the world stock market highs. However, if we carefully analyze the economic development of countries around the world various problems exist, you will find that behind the appearance of prosperity, there are actually a huge risk of crisis and structural systems.
We know that bold prediction, the outbreak of a global financial crisis. can be avoided.
elaborate below forecasts because:
(1) because of human society and the rapid development of science and technology into the 21st century, countries around the world economic community is entering a time of change, this is not the person times will change for the transfer. In order to adapt to this new era of development, countries in the world economic and social need for a profound reform and adjustment. This is a systemic reform and adjustment and structural, and therefore will face significant opportunities and challenges, but also will produce significant changes in the economic and social.
successful if the reform and adjustment, economic and social development structure will be optimized and improved the country's economic and social development will enter a new and more healthy stage of development. If failed, the inevitable economic and social development will lead to recession, the decline stage.
this era of change is human and inevitable trend of historical development, it is not the will of the people for the transfer. change the results only two: one successful, the second a failure. Of course, this change is long-term, not a promotion and to the. If a country is in the early stages of change fails, it will lose the future opportunity.
( 2) Although the last decade, the economic development of BRICs rapid rise of the total volume for the global economy, rapid development has brought new impetus. However, the rapid development of economic aggregates to the BRIC's own economic and social development great risks and crises.
four countries which rely on rapid economic development is essentially developed in the extensive mode, that is, by large consumption of natural resources and natural environment to develop. This rely on a lot of consumption and waste of human resources and natural resources development model and the current world economic and social trends have a tremendous contradictions and conflicts. these contradictions and conflicts have given the national economic and social development today, the enormous problems and crises.
such as China and India , although the two countries with different economic development paths, political and social system is different, but the process of economic development between the two countries are the same two points is:
(a) overdraft huge human resources, to take down and crush the value of labor resources method, in exchange for exports of low-cost advantage. Although this model of economic development in the initial force, but on the future sustainable economic development has brought great harm. This mode of development in exchange for the labor press of the moment of rapid development, but also wealth gap has brought social problems, it also brings economic vicious price competition, but also brought the loss of national scientific and technological innovation and cultural issues.
(b) large-scale uncontrolled exploitation of natural resources, extensive mineral resources. While The development of mineral resources, overdraft processing enterprises of the moment low-cost advantages, but it caused serious damage to the natural environment, but also to bring about a crisis of national sustainable development and resistance.
relative terms, Russia and Brazil, vast land and small population, with large-scale exploitation of natural resources exports in exchange for the rapid growth of export earnings, but also caused environmental degradation. these two countries, how to ensure that the natural environment and resources, sustainable development and recycling have become major issues in national development.
Although the four countries in the short term the next few years the rapid development of economic output can also be expected, but the country has accumulated in the economic and social development issues and the crisis has been very serious, Once a particular aspect of economic and social fields an incident, it may lead to overall economic and social crisis.
issues such as economic and social management system, how to really create a fair and open and fair management system, so that all participating business units of economic competition and individuals have equal rights and special interest groups in order to prevent abuse and destruction of economic and social order. This is four major issues prevailing in the country. Because of extensive development over the past accumulated a large number of special interest groups, because there are a lot of commercial bribery, resulting in large enterprise business conglomerates from monopolizing the trades profitable market opportunities, new and small businesses suffer from unfair competition treatment, resulting in a lack of fair competition in energy markets, lack of market innovation and vitality naturally.
other economic management system, there exists a large number of loopholes and problems, but also for the world institutional investors must attack numerous investment opportunities for arbitrage. did Thailand, the Philippines and Hong Kong and the root causes of the financial crisis is that these countries and regions, there are a lot of financial and real estate bubble and regulatory loopholes.
Although countries in recent years The government has embarked on various countries and industries to improve management system of many, however, due to lack of management experience, the existence of various special interest groups, economic and social management system is very difficult to improve.
gap is not between rich and poor segment also expanded, resulted in growing social conflicts, class seems to be split, gap between rich and poor while allowing the majority of the population continue to reduce the spending power of middle and lower classes. low-wage business development model has resulted in the lower middle class is increasing pressure to survive, resulting in increasing pressure on health care, lack of innovative people.
of Russia, for example, was once the world's most cultural creativity of a country and the Russian literature, music, arts, education and technology has always been envy of the world. Today, although total economy started to recover, but those cultural and technological innovation and creative skills can re-emergence is still a big question?
whether a country's total economic output power is not how much. but the quality of economic and social development problem. As long as enough of a country's population, geographical area is large enough, more than enough natural resources, the country's economic output necessarily great. These are just a natural resource factors.
a country mainly depends on whether the strong cultural and technological creativity! there is no culture of excellence? determines there is no innovation and creativity of a country? decided to have a healthy and progressive national energy!
crude extraction of natural resources by way of development, is bound to advance the future development of today. deterioration of the global environment is a good example of evil continue to flood the global economy today is a case in point.
(3) Structure of the U.S. economy to the enormous risks of global economic development.
While the U.S. still has in the world political system, education system and business culture on the advantages, however, the structure of the U.S. economy today, the contradictions and problems have seriously hindered the economic development of the future.
the United States over the past two decades, success in the field of information technology to create, economic and social growth in the United States brought a new dynamic, but also to the global economy brought about a dramatic change. as agents of the global economy has also been a lot of U.S. economic interests.
However, things often have two sides, As economic globalization is accelerating beyond the imagination of the United States, more than the ability to control the United States, which exposed the economic and social reform in the United States itself began to lag behind the global trend of economic and social change. For example: With the global production and processing investment integration; the United States a large number of bankrupt companies shrank; labor and employment rate decreased; the last stable fracture of the middle class; severe depreciation of the dollar, the U.S. Treasury under attack risk; and so on.
so the United States needed a successful optimization of economic structure adjustment. The upgrading and adjustment for a very large and very mature economies is very difficult country.
United States or the global consumer economy has momentum, so the decline of the U.S. economy will affect the global economy.
(4) The spread of global currency, investment funds and speculators around the world at any time in institutions the opportunity to capture large-scale speculation.
to dollars and Japanese yen currency represented a serious flooding has become a global economic problems. dollars and the depreciation of the yen is U.S. and Japanese long-term economic strategy. So all of a large number of dollars and yen held in the country, occurring every day in currency depreciation and asset losses. The loss of these countries is a serious blow to the economy and loss.
Also since the emergence of electronic currency, global currency has been the uncontrolled proliferation of the speed and scale of development. every day can not be spread statistics in various industries around the world currency market in a variety of speculation and investment, all the time in capturing a variety of arbitrage opportunities. As the rapid development in recent years, countries in the management system and management experience enormous problems there, the natural financial markets in these countries is the preferred target for speculative institutions. as long as the loophole exists, there is profiteering, the global speculative funds will be flock.
speculation on the global institution, the greater the crisis, the greater the risk, which means greater opportunities, greater profits. So they always wait for the outbreak of the crisis, or even adopt various means to promote crisis outbreak.
{5} The most likely first outbreak of the Asian financial crisis.
Asia is today the hottest place in the global economy, is the world's fastest-growing local economy. Naturally, this is also the government officials and wealthy Asian pride moment, let down our guard and ignore the crisis stage. Today, Asia is also the management of the most vulnerable areas.
Asian family history of long-term accumulation of cultural history, relationships rule caused people of Asian countries pay more attention to the system rather than the rule of law. Therefore, the business bribery became widespread economic problems in Asia. Since the accumulation of long-term commercial bribery, economic and social management system led to serious problems, resulting in a large area of the law fails, resulting in industrial economic management system, the existence of serious flaws. Financial Management systemic vulnerabilities and assets vulnerability management system on the speculative money has created the world's great chance to attack.
(6) With the continuous expansion and deepening of economic globalization, and enterprises around the world increasing competition between the various. all kinds of competition for natural resources , growing market competition between countries, trade conflicts between regions is increasing. and even to some economic and political purposes, the regional military conflict is increasing. In order to achieve the purpose of overcoming competitors, the use of financial leverage to attack the other country is the simplest and most effective strategic approach. So the impact of the use of financial instruments other countries, competition among financial markets in the country commonly used method.
(7) the factors that ignited the crisis in global economic and social competition from all aspects and conflicts areas, such as regional military conflicts, competition for energy and mineral resources, trade conflicts, market monopolies and antitrust, financial market manipulation and speculation and so on. Each burst factors and forces will lead to a national and regional financial crises, then the establishment of economic globalization, global economic network of interconnected regional and global production crisis.
We do not want to see the financial crisis, we want to see the global economy can continue to improve and enhance social . We certainly hope that China will seize the global opportunity to change economic and social structures, building China into the world's best country, so that all Chinese people to enjoy the rich happy and healthy life.
2007 �� 7 �� Sunday, 22 < br> c, a global leader in the measurement standards of good corporate
first in the world is only right that the past hundred years the so-called world 500 title and concept is completely wrong. clearly remind the world not to governments and the mainstream elite blind superstition and worship of the so-called Fortune 500 companies.
author on July 19, 2005 and David in the comments published in Foresight [reads as follows:
article addresses:
recent Chinese media reports, how many Chinese companies to enter the U.S. Fortune magazine's top 500 enterprises in sales, in particular, also pointed out that because the sales revenue of Haier Group $ 200,000,000 difference is not selected. Chinese media has been the U.S. Fortune magazine and Forbes magazine's annual selection of sales revenue and total assets of the top 500 companies referred to as the on the big mistake, 500 is the Chinese translation, English original name was Fortune500 and Forbes500.'s original name from the English to see just how far the world's top 500 enterprises, not to say that this ranking is the world's 500 or 500.
and from Fortune magazine and Forbes magazine ranked companies to see rankings based on sales revenue and total assets of the primary factors to consider, so a more precise translation should be the world's top 500 sales, or total assets of the world's top 500 and more The exact short should be According to incomplete statistics 50 years ago, the world's 500 top companies are still in office less than 10%, and there is a phenomenon the forefront of this year, the world's top 500 companies ranked Mingluosunshan next year or may even disappear. We see many of the world very well-known companies ranked in the forefront of a variety of reasons the 500 closed down almost overnight as the United States WorldCom, South Korea's Daewoo Group and so on. Thus the total sales revenue and assets-based selection methods of the 500 selected companies can only represent their size and does not reflect the competitiveness of enterprises is strong, can not reflect the company is healthy and good quality.
In the past, Chinese enterprises and the large gap between Western and Japanese enterprises in developed countries, therefore, the world's top 500 companies have a blind worship, caused the world's top 500 companies is the world's most powerful companies, and today they just look big does not necessarily strong. So the force, there is potential for development of the world top 500 enterprises, not just the huge assets of the world's 500 largest companies.
four areas of economic analysis in China
1. first published in China [Chinese economy, the main issue].
author in July 25, 2005 published in the Foresight blog [the main problems of economic development in China]. reads as follows:
article addresses:
(1) business and economic decision makers moral civilization and social responsibility.
(2) rule of law and regulate the market building.
(3) the lack of natural resources and reasonable utilization.
(4) scientific and technological innovation and invention issues. < br> (5) market economic system to create, manage and monitor the level of the problem.
(6) to create sustainable development and the extensive mode of economic contradictions.
(7) economic development and the development of agriculture.
(8) to eliminate poverty problem.
(9) the employment rate and per capita income increase the problem.
(10) safety and health of the financial system development.
(11) The uneven development in coastal and inland .
(12) education and health care, and building.
2008, China's economic and social crisis exposed the contradictions and proves once again: On the social awareness on the Chinese economy has exceeded the country's leadership and profound and comprehensive.
2. China first proposed . > author on 17 November 2008 planning vision and knowledge in banking and David comment on blog published [policies and measures to expand domestic demand if the failure of China's strategic transformation will lose the last chance]. following the removal of some content of the article:
from the Chinese government launched a series of policy measures to expand domestic demand to see, we have reason to believe that next year GDP growth of China's economy can be maintained at a higher proportion. but from the transformation of China's economic and social structures of strategic opportunities for optimization perspective, the use of large-scale investments GDP growth is not conducive to promoting China's economic future long-term sustainable development, and may lose the optimization and upgrading of China's last strategic opportunities.
(b) The only correct way of expanding domestic demand is to increase national spending power, and increase the capacity of national consumption CD A majority of the correct approach is to enhance the purchasing power of low-income people.
Although the massive government investment can rapidly expanding domestic demand, because the investment is itself part of domestic demand. However, the Chinese economy is the real reason of insufficient domestic demand capacity of national consumption enough to be more precise is more than 70% less than the purchasing power of low-income people, because their income is less than .70% of national income can not keep up with rising living costs and rising cost pressures of work, you can also say that 50% national income can barely maintain the level of basic survival such as food and clothing. This is the reality of the whole country is well known. Over the past two decades, China's countless patriotic people called on the government to improve the livelihood of the people do, to economic development outcomes is also conducive to the public, raising public people's quality of life. Huwenxinzheng, the Chinese government began to attach importance to improve people's livelihood, such as the problem of rural children of compulsory education, factory safety of employees, workers wage issues, health care reform, etc. However, as various interest groups interference, a variety of low-income people's livelihood on the improvement of progress was not smooth. Therefore, only in order to enhance and improve the purchasing power of most of the focus on low-income people, relying on increased income and spending power to boost domestic demand, China's economic growth was China's economic development is a fundamental way.
4 trillion in the current investment plan launched in the context of low-income people can really benefit from a better life in only a few very small part of the vast majority of interest must be 4 trillion of investment into the rich and business owners and the pockets of government officials.
Here, we provide a simple and efficient and immediate increase in domestic demand, improving national income and the method: the scope for consumption, does not allow consumption of luxury goods such as automotive jewelry and the like, has targeted low-income groups, income criteria can be discussed, such as the monthly wage of 3,000 yuan or 2,000 yuan, more income, the lower paid, non-payment of income poverty among the most . . Why China does not this method?
article addresses:
five, enterprise management in China, analysis of research published
China's first major issues of enterprise development in China.
the author in 2005 July 25, published in Foresight blog published [the main problems of enterprise development in China]. reads as follows:
article Address:
(1) business and professional managers of moral integrity and social responsibility
(6) corporate and product brand and culture building.
(7) globalization of the domestic and international market competition.
(8) short-term benefits and long-term development of enterprises conflicts and social responsibility.
outbreaks in recent years, brick kilns and mines in the event, the false doctors fake events, the milk scandal, the network was arrested a large number of dark events and business owner, and so fully proved: History of Development of Chinese Enterprises and the reality has exceeded the country's profound foresight, and comprehensive.
six
in terms of humanitarian assistance during the 512 earthquake disaster relief in China first put forward proposals, and four consecutive urgent recommendations put forward. < br> On the four proposed many of the emergency relief proposal was adopted by the earthquake relief headquarters, has played a positive role in disaster rescue. including 100 helicopters.
author on May 14, 2008 prior See planning and knowledge of banking and David comment on blog published [foresight and knowledge of banking talent in the planning: disaster emergency proposal!]. reads as follows:
foresight and knowledge of banking talent in the planning:
this two-day Sichuan earthquake shook the whole of China, but also shocked the world. the face of the edge of life and death struggle with tens of thousands of victims, as Chinese people do for relief?
March April 13, 10:10 am we launched an initiative on the Internet [action to do something for the earthquake-stricken areas?], and immediately to the bank to the Shanghai Red Cross to donate a little love. We are pleased that the initiative has been well response, the size of the site two days in China were affected areas were sent a rescue ...
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